Rough with the Smooth

After an excellent run, yesterday wasn’t one of the better days for my portfolio. I have been holding construction company Galliford Try and the share suffered a 10% drop after a 98 million pound one off cost was announced. The fall to slightly above 1300 went well below the VectorVest calculated stop loss.

My entry to the share was at around 1390 and I exited the position this morning at a tad above 1300. This is the first loss in this portfolio for some time.

I have also banked profits in Ab Dynamics at a 575. The share is showing fully valued on VectorVest and seems to be running out of momentum. The share was much easier to exit than I anticipated.

I am holding on to Sopheon for the moment. The chart of the share is shown below using a weekly candlestick to display the price action over the last year. As you can see the last significant old high was at 400 and that’s where I would expect the bids to be concentrated. It would surprise me if the share didn’t test this level before moving higher.

soph

I have added the weekly Macd to the chart, in the window below the price and EPS. The Macd is making a new high when the price is also making a new high. This shows strong momentum (which was absent on Ab Dynamics) and the probabilities favour more upside.

On the general market, both the short term trend and the long term are upwards although the advice on the front page of VectorVest advises caution. This is excellent advice and I won’t do anything with my newly released funds until VectorVest says it’s OK to proceed. Remember, it is May and it could easily be time to go away.

I had a leveraged position in Centamin until yesterday. The position was stopped during the course of the day as the bullion price fell. In my leveraged trading, I use stops which are placed on the market maker. In my investment account, which is not leveraged, I manage the stops on an end of day basis. This works for me but it may not necessarily be optimal for anyone reading this.

Last week, I was tempted to enter into a position in Kaz but after deliberation decided to wait for a VectorVest buy signal on the share. As I write, Kaz has pulled back strongly during trading on the 4th May. The share should find support at around 440, which is where previous resistance from a downward sloping trendline should become support. The copper price has fallen hard to a major support line, and if this level should be broken, there is quite a drop until the next major FIB based support level. I will sit and wait and do nothing in this share.

Learn to love small losses.

David Paul

4th May 2017

3 thoughts on “Rough with the Smooth

  1. Hi David, Thanks for your update.Hope you are a bit better.Thanks to you and Paul we all had a good night at Balmoral. HSTG going well .Take care.
    God bless,
    Andrew Reid

  2. Hi
    Just to say that also exited Galliford Try yesterday as it was way past it’s stop for a small loss and have also bailed out of Sophen this morning for a nice 25% profit at it also dropped past it’s VV Stop and the RT is well down. I did however find it difficult to sell in lots greater than 1500 shares and had to sell my position in three tranches. I believe the EMS is around 500 shares. I hope this helps anyone else who is holding this share.
    Keith

  3. Yes, it was an excellent comment on the losses. Centamin was stopped out as well for me with the small loss. I am still holding AB dynamic and Legal and general.
    Dividend payout for legal and general on 10th Of June at 10.35 pence. I just topped up on the Ex-dividend day.eventhough the price is low.Hope to see you on your next event

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